A have a look at some betting angles for the AFC East in 2021.
The favourite: Payments
As soon as dominated by the New England Patriots, the AFC East has a brand new favourite within the Buffalo Payments. At -150 at BetMGM, the value implies Buffalo has a 60 p.c probability to win this division, and it’s arduous to quarrel with that. Ought to Josh Allen keep his stage from final season, during which he accomplished 69.2 p.c of his passes and threw for 37 touchdowns, it could be arduous to make an actual case towards the Payments. They’ve questions with defensive personnel, however given the standing of different groups within the division, the AFC East nonetheless runs by Buffalo.
The division, nevertheless, has improved from high to backside. The Dolphins are coming off a 10-win season, and large issues are anticipated from second-year quarterback Tua Tagovailoa with a full offseason beneath his belt. The Patriots revamped their offense utterly, reverting to the two-tight-end set they employed to terrorize the NFL 10 years in the past, and will push for a playoff spot.
The New York Jets is not going to doubtless attain these heights, however there is no such thing as a denying the offensive personnel is strong. They’ve two first-round picks alongside the offensive line, good for breaking in rookie quarterback Zach Wilson. The Jets even have loads of weapons on the ability positions for first-year head coach Robert Saleh. Buffalo deserves its place atop the division, however this is not going to be the identical AFC East that took the sphere in 2020.
Dwell ‘canine: Patriots
Many will level to Miami (+325) because the stay underdog on this division, however New England (7/2) needs to be the primary group to contemplate. The Patriots boast the most effective run-blocking offensive strains within the NFL, and with tight ends Jonnu Smith and Hunter Henry now within the fold, this offense could possibly be good — if the quarterback play is strong. On protection, two high-caliber gamers return. On the forefront is linebacker Dont’a Hightower, who opted out in 2020, and cross rusher Kyle Van Noy, who returns after a season with the Dolphins.
Prop Play: Damien Harris to guide NFL in speeding (66/1)
The Patriots’ operating again was glorious final season, ending because the second-highest-graded rusher (90.3) to Derrick Henry, based on PFF. A part of Harris’ success is because of an offensive line that is likely one of the greatest within the NFL in run blocking. PFF graded this unit because the sixth-best run-blocking group within the league (76.2) in 2020, and based on Soccer Outsiders they have been third in adjusted line yards per carry (4.82). Invoice Belichick has been vocal in his help of Harris, and given the form this offense is taking, bettors can anticipate a give attention to the operating sport. I took this at 100/1 and it’s all the way down to 66/1, however I nonetheless like the worth.
Prop Play: Dolphins to overlook playoffs (-140)
Too many indicators level towards a regression for Miami. This protection led the league in takeaways and interceptions, which doesn’t are inclined to repeat. The Dolphins haven’t any dominant cross rusher, and their protection towards the run in 2020 was missing. Soccer Outsiders ranked them twenty second in defensive rush DVOA, and their entrance seven was twenty second in defending energy conditions. If this protection takes its anticipated step again and Tagovailoa continues his present trajectory, there is no such thing as a motive to imagine this shall be a playoff group.